Fourth Nigerian Republic (2020 Crisis)
| |} |} The Fourth Republic was the period of 25 years, between 1999 and 2024, in force or Fourth Republican Constitution, adopted on May 29, 1999. It was in many ways a rebirth of the Second Republic, which existed between 1979 and 1983 and suffered many of the same problems, such as multiple ministries that made policy planning difficult. Founding (1999) Following the death of military dictator and de facto ruler of Nigeria, General Sani Abacha in 1998, his successor General Abdusalami Abubakar initiated the transition which heralded Nigeria's return to democratic rule in 1999. The ban on political activities was lifted, and political prisoners were released from detention facilities. The constitution was styled after the ill-fated Second Republic — which saw the Westminster system of government jettisoned for an American Presidential system. Political parties were formed (People's Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and Alliance for Democracy (AD)), and elections were set for April 1999. In the widely monitored 1999 election, former military ruler Olusegun Obasanjo was elected on the PDP platform. On 29 May 1999, Obasanjo was sworn in as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. 1999 - 2019 In the controversial general election on 21 April 2007, Umaru Yar'Adua of the PDP was elected President. Following the death of Umaru Yar'Adua on 5 May 2010, Goodluck Jonathan became the third president (Interim) and later won the election the following year which was largely accredited as freer and fairer than all the previous elections of the 4th Republic. Muhammadu Buhari then won the general elections on 28 March 2015 after the PDP rule of sixteen years (1999–2015). Its government suffers from the fall in oil prices, which generates a meager growth of the economy. Political polarization also began between the two major parties, the more statist and interventionist All Progressives Congress (APC), and the more liberal in economy People's Democratic Party (PDP). Atiku Abubakar Government (2019 - 2023) With the wearing down of the Buhari government, in the 2019 elections the PDP returns to power, with the election of Atiku Abubakar. In this election, APC and PDP maintains domination in the National Assembly, with the other parties having very few seats. Their government increases the liberalization of the economy, and in the beginning the economy returns to perform well, growing to 2.9% in 2019 and 4.6% in 2020. However, with the Crisis of 2020 and 2021, and the consequent fall of the price of oil makes the revenues fall, the country goes into recession (-0.8% GDP growth in 2021, and 0.6% GDP growht in 2022), and its approval falls. Inflation is also not controlled by its government, and is increased by a loosening of banking regulation, which has generated an expansion of credit. Inflation reached 21.2% in 2021, and 34.6% in 2022. In addition, the government has been involved in corruption scandals. This all generates a sense of rejection, not only to the government but also to the political system dominated by the APC and PDP, and that Nigeria does not develop to its full potential. In this scenario, there is a union of left-wing parties and politicians, creating Popular Action (PA), a leftist party, with a democratic socialist program. 2023 Elections With the wearing down of Atiku Abubkar's government, but also the rejection of the populace to the political system dominated by PDP and APC, the candidate of the Popular Action (PA), Osolenji Solweto, emerged like frank favorite. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the PDP and Yemi Osinbajo of the APC competed against him. Even winning in the first round, Osolenji Solweto did not have 25% of votes 2/3 of the states. Thus, a second round took place against the second place of the first round, in the case Rabiu Kwanwaso. In the second round, Osolenji won 62.67% of the vote, against 37.33% of Rabiu Kwankwaso, and won in 32 of the 36 states, only losing in Kano, home state of Rabiu Kwankwaso, Sokoto, Jigawa and Katsina, all northern muslim and conservative state. In the central states of the country, and also the poorest, he won with more than 70% of the votes. But he also had a large vote in the big cities, whose average of 61% was very close to his percentage of votes, because, in large cities, a population of higher education and higher income, opted for a leftist plan to improve the parents. Thus, almost half of the middle class dictates bourgeois, like small traders and liberal professionals, voted in Solweto. Kwankwaso's vote focused on the other half of the middle class, the half more conservative and anti-leftist, and middle-sized cities where the PDP exercised greater political power over a population that was not as poor as the towns and small cities. Solweto's program, called New Way Reforms, consisted of: * Expropriate the assets of private oil companies (foreigners or national). * Increase 3x the minimum wage, which had been churned in the last four years. * Raise regulation on the banking sector, create a state bank, and start the gradual process of complete nationalization of the banking industry. * Creation of a vacancy in the corporate board to represent the workers, whose number of representatives would vary according to the number of employees. In public companies, each employee representative would have the equivalent of 2% of the voting power. * Workers could take control of companies or factories that failed or were abandoned and administered through the Workers' Council. * Statization of strategic, steel, metallurgical and industrial industries required for development. Creation of state-owned enterprises in the industries area. * All concessions to private enterprise in the electricity sector and in the transportation system would be totally * An agrarian reform would be done, and the small farmers would be organized in Rural Districts, in which they would have the collective possession of part land, and individual of the other part. They would organize themselves in the Agricultural Councils, and with the proceeds of their agricultural activities, could develop the welfare of the community. * Creation of a food distribution company, which would buy them from the Agricultural Councils and distribute them to the poor population. * Creation in each neighborhood of a Base Council, which would develop economic, social and administrative activities locias. * Educational, health and social security reform. * Large state interventions in economy. The goal was really the transition to a socialized economy, and the vialibilability of a socialist and democratic project, or at least close to socialism, maintaining highly socialized capitalism. It had the support of part of the middle class, who, partly employed and partly owner of small establishments or professional professionals, saw in this plan a way to improve their standard of living. Osolenji Solweto Government (2023 - 2024) Osolenji Solweto was sworn in as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on May 29, 2023. In the National Assembly, his party, Popular Action (PA), had more than 38% of seats, but had to form a coalition with other small parties and with the great All Progressives Congress (APC) to have majority and ability to modify the Constitution. At first, his government had to curb the great devaluation of the naira, which had already been devalued by rising inflation, but had suffered a devaluation and 120% by the election of a socialist president in Nigeria. The currency was then valued artificially, for a value only 20% higher than pre-crisis exchange value, and a controlled exchange rate system was adopted. The government also increased capital outflow control to keep the currency valued and investment in the country by raising the capital outflow tax by 100 percent and requiring a minimum investment value from companies so they could export capital. The control of capital outflows and the controlled and subsequently valued exchange rate as a result of the high national inflation without the same devaluation of the exchange rate, generated a drop in foreign investments, as well as the other economic policies of the government, which forced the government to seek other ways to stimulate growth, such as monetary expansion, indebtedness, subsidies and interventions. The government also believed that the tax / GDP ratio of 11.1% in 2022 was too low for a country that wanted to develop, and have a state able to invest and promote the well-being of citizens. Then there was an increase in import taxes, as well as capital export, in addition to a tax reform, structuring a progressive system on income, with a high rate for the rich, a small increase in taxes on corporate income, increase of taxes on multinational corporations, and a large increase in taxes on profits and dividends. As a result, the government increased the tax burden to 17% of GDP, and structured a transition to a tax-to-GDP ratio of 24% at the end of the government. However, there was a drop in private domestic investment, and the government had to use the new revenue to make state investments. Category:Nations Category:Africa Category:2020 Crisis